Probabilistic foundations and background -- Melody I : the rhythm model -- Melody II : the pitch model -- Melody III : expectation and error detection -- A polyphonic key-finding model -- Applications of the polyphonic key-finding model -- Bayesian models of other aspects of music -- Style and composition -- Communicative pressure.

Explores the application of Bayesian probabilistic modeling techniques to musical issues, including the perception of key and meter and cognition, from a probabilistic perspective. The application of probabilistic ideas to music has been pursued only sporadically over the past four decades, but the time is ripe, Temperley argues, for a reconsideration of how probabilities shape music perception and even music itself. Recent advances in the application of probability theory to other domains of cognitive modeling, coupled with new evidence and theoretical insights about the working of the musical mind, have laid the groundwork for more fruitful investigations. Temperley proposes computational models for two basic cognitive processes, the perception of key and the perception of meter, using techniques of Bayesian probabilistic modeling